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Carabao CupThu 17 Sept, 19:30 United Kingdom time

Manchester City vs Norwich City prediction

Etihad Stadium

Manchester CityHome

3.12 : 0.87

expected goals

Norwich CityAway

81%Man City

12%Draw

7%Norwich City

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Manchester City vs Norwich City is Manchester City to win, with a 81% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Manchester City to win
Chance: 81%
Most likely score: 3-0
Expected goals: Manchester City 3.1, Norwich City 0.9
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Manchester City to win and both score

41% chanceFair price 7/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Manchester City 81%, the draw 12% and Norwich City 7%. The bookmakers agree and make Manchester City the favourite at 1/9.
2
Recent form
Manchester City took 12 points from their last 5 games and Norwich City took 12 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Manchester City won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Norwich City won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Manchester City score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.9. Norwich City score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Manchester City games and 12 of Norwich City games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Manchester City vs Norwich City: Manchester City are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Manchester City host Norwich City in the Carabao Cup on Thu 17 Sept, 19:30 at Etihad Stadium. Our prediction for Manchester City vs Norwich City is Manchester City to win, with a 81% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 3/10.

Manchester City form

Manchester City have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Norwich City form

Norwich City have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Manchester City to score about 3.1 goals and Norwich City about 0.9. That points to Manchester City to win, with 3-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Manchester City to win and both score at 7/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Man City	Norwich City
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	12
Draws	4	2
Losses	3	6
Goals scored	38	34
Goals conceded	18	23
Scored per game	1.9	1.7
Conceded per game	0.9	1.1
Home record	7W 1D 2L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	6W 3D 1L	6W 0D 4L
Clean sheets	45%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Manchester City to win	81%	2/9	1/9	-10.0%
A Draw	12%	7/1	7/1	-2.8%
Norwich City to win	7%	14/1	12/1	-3.8%
Over 3.5 goals	55%	4/5	8/11	-5.6%
Under 3.5 goals	45%	5/4	21/20	-7.9%
Manchester City -2.5	47%	11/10	5/6	-11.8%
Norwich City +2.5	53%	10/11	4/5	-4.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	91%	1/10
Over 2.5 goals	76%	3/10
Over 3.5 goals	56%	4/5
Both teams to score	56%	4/5
Manchester City or Draw	93%	1/10
Norwich City or Draw	19%	9/2
Manchester City to win and Over 2.5	67%	1/2
Norwich City to win and Over 2.5	5%	20/1
Manchester City clean sheet	42%	7/5
Norwich City clean sheet	4%	20/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

3-09.3%

2-09.0%

3-18.2%

2-17.8%

4-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Manchester City vs Norwich City?

Our prediction for Manchester City vs Norwich City is Manchester City to win, with a 81% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Manchester City vs Norwich City?

3-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 3-1. We expect Manchester City to score 3.1 goals and Norwich City 0.9.

Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Norwich City?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Manchester City last 20 games and 13 of Norwich City last 20.

How are Manchester City playing?

How are Norwich City playing?

What is the best bet for Manchester City vs Norwich City?

Over 2.5 goals at 3/10, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.