Predictions › United Kingdom › Manchester City vs Sunderland

Premier LeagueSun 20 Sept, 14:00 United Kingdom time

Manchester City vs Sunderland prediction

Etihad Stadium

Manchester CityHome

2.46 : 0.85

expected goals

SunderlandAway

72%Man City

17%Draw

10%Sunderland

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

2/11

Quick answer

Our prediction for Manchester City vs Sunderland is Manchester City to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

Prediction: Manchester City to win
Chance: 72%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Manchester City 2.5, Sunderland 0.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 2/11
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 2/112 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Manchester City to win and both score

34% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Manchester City 72%, the draw 17% and Sunderland 10%. The bookmakers agree and make Manchester City the favourite at 2/9.
2
Recent form
Manchester City took 12 points from their last 5 games and Sunderland took 10 from 5. Manchester City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Manchester City won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Sunderland won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Manchester City score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.9. Sunderland score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Manchester City games and 10 of Sunderland games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Manchester City won 1 and Sunderland won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Sunderland 0, Manchester City 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Manchester City vs Sunderland: Manchester City are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Manchester City host Sunderland in the Premier League on Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 at Etihad Stadium. Our prediction for Manchester City vs Sunderland is Manchester City to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

Manchester City form

Manchester City have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Sunderland form

Sunderland have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Manchester City won 1, Sunderland won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Sunderland 0, Manchester City 0.

Our call

We expect Manchester City to score about 2.5 goals and Sunderland about 0.8. That points to Manchester City to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11. Our bold bet is Manchester City to win and both score at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Man City	Sunderland
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	8
Draws	4	4
Losses	3	8
Goals scored	38	23
Goals conceded	18	28
Scored per game	1.9	1.1
Conceded per game	0.9	1.4
Home record	7W 1D 2L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	6W 3D 1L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	45%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Manchester City to win	72%	2/5	2/9	-10.6%
A Draw	17%	5/1	5/1	+3.3%
Sunderland to win	10%	17/2	9/1	+4.2%
Over 3.5 goals	40%	6/4	11/8	-5.2%
Under 3.5 goals	60%	4/6	8/15	-8.1%
Manchester City -1.5	53%	10/11	4/6	-11.0%
Sunderland +1.5	47%	11/10	10/11	-7.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	2/11
Over 2.5 goals	64%	4/7
Over 3.5 goals	42%	11/8
Both teams to score	53%	10/11
Manchester City or Draw	90%	1/9
Sunderland or Draw	28%	13/5
Manchester City to win and Over 2.5	53%	10/11
Sunderland to win and Over 2.5	6%	14/1
Manchester City clean sheet	43%	11/8
Sunderland clean sheet	9%	11/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.1%

2-19.4%

3-09.1%

1-08.6%

1-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Manchester City vs Sunderland?

Our prediction for Manchester City vs Sunderland is Manchester City to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

What is the score prediction for Manchester City vs Sunderland?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 3-0. We expect Manchester City to score 2.5 goals and Sunderland 0.8.

Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Manchester City last 20 games and 10 of Sunderland last 20.

How are Manchester City playing?

How are Sunderland playing?

What happened when Manchester City and Sunderland last met?

It ended Sunderland 0, Manchester City 0. In the last 2 meetings Manchester City won 1 and Sunderland won 0.

What is the best bet for Manchester City vs Sunderland?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/11, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.