Manchester United vs Manchester City prediction

Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 United Kingdom time, Old Trafford

Manchester United

1.45 - 1.71

expected goals

Manchester City

Man United 32%Draw 25%Man City 43%

Our three picks

✓

Under 3.5 goals

61% chancePrice 63/1001 unit

⚡

Manchester United to win

32% chancePrice 43/20+1.6% value1 unit

No value bet here: at the current prices the bookmaker is not giving more than our model thinks is fair. We would rather say so than force one.

Our chance mixes the model with the market. Value is how much the price pays above our fair price.

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Manchester United to win	32%	21/10	43/20	+1.6%
A Draw	25%	61/20	14/5	-6.3%
Manchester City to win	43%	33/25	23/20	-7.4%
Over 3.5 goals	39%	157/100	13/10	-10.7%
Under 3.5 goals	61%	16/25	63/100	-0.6%
Manchester United +0.5	57%	19/25	69/100	-3.8%
Manchester City -0.5	43%	33/25	21/20	-11.7%

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	21/100
Over 2.5 goals	61%	16/25
Over 3.5 goals	39%	157/100
Both teams to score	63%	29/50
Manchester United or Draw	57%	19/25
Manchester City or Draw	68%	12/25
Manchester United to win and Over 2.5	22%	7/2
Manchester City to win and Over 2.5	30%	23/10
Manchester United clean sheet	18%	451/100
Manchester City clean sheet	23%	82/25

1-111.2%

1-29.0%

2-17.6%

0-16.6%

2-26.5%

Who will win Manchester United vs Manchester City?

Our model gives Manchester United a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Manchester City 43%.

How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Manchester City?

We expect about 3.2 goals (Manchester United 1.45, Manchester City 1.71). Over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance.

Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Manchester City?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance according to our model.

What is the most likely score?

1-1, with a 11.2% chance, followed by 1-2 and 2-1.