Predictions › Ligue 1 › Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain

Ligue 1Sun 20 Sept, 18:45 UTC

Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction

Stade Vélodrome

MarseilleHome

1.31 : 2.09

expected goals

Paris Saint-GermainAway

23%Marseille

22%Draw

55%PSG

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain to win
Chance: 55%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Marseille 1.3, Paris Saint-Germain 2.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

86% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Paris Saint-Germain to win and Over 2.5

41% chanceFair price 2.431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Marseille 23%, the draw 22% and Paris Saint-Germain 55%. The bookmakers agree and make Paris Saint-Germain the favourite at 1.49.
2
Recent form
Marseille took 6 points from their last 5 games and Paris Saint-Germain took 6 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Marseille won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Paris Saint-Germain won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Marseille score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.7. Paris Saint-Germain score 2.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Marseille games and 14 of Paris Saint-Germain games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Marseille won 1 and Paris Saint-Germain won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Paris Saint-Germain 5, Marseille 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain: Paris Saint-Germain are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Marseille host Paris Saint-Germain in the Ligue 1 on Sun 20 Sept, 18:45 at Stade Vélodrome. Our prediction for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Marseille form

Marseille have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Paris Saint-Germain form

Paris Saint-Germain have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Marseille won 1, Paris Saint-Germain won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Paris Saint-Germain 5, Marseille 0.

Our call

We expect Marseille to score about 1.3 goals and Paris Saint-Germain about 2.1. That points to Paris Saint-Germain to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Paris Saint-Germain to win and Over 2.5 at 2.43.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Marseille	PSG
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	12
Draws	3	5
Losses	10	3
Goals scored	25	50
Goals conceded	34	22
Scored per game	1.3	2.5
Conceded per game	1.7	1.1
Home record	5W 2D 2L	7W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 1D 8L	5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Both teams scored	45%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Marseille to win	23%	4.35	5.50	+26.4%
A Draw	22%	4.53	4.70	+3.7%
Paris Saint-Germain to win	55%	1.82	1.49	-18.2%
Over 3.5 goals	47%	2.12	1.91	-9.8%
Under 3.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.80	-5.0%
Marseille +1.5	60%	1.67	1.59	-5.0%
Paris Saint-Germain -1.5	40%	2.49	2.10	-15.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	66%	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.26
Both teams to score	64%	1.55
Marseille or Draw	45%	2.22
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw	77%	1.30
Marseille to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.13
Paris Saint-Germain to win and Over 2.5	41%	2.43
Marseille clean sheet	12%	8.11
Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet	27%	3.70

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.7%

1-29.6%

0-27.3%

1-36.7%

0-16.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Our prediction for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Marseille to score 1.3 goals and Paris Saint-Germain 2.1.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Marseille last 20 games and 12 of Paris Saint-Germain last 20.

How are Marseille playing?

How are Paris Saint-Germain playing?

What happened when Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain last met?

It ended Paris Saint-Germain 5, Marseille 0. In the last 2 meetings Marseille won 1 and Paris Saint-Germain won 1.

What is the best bet for Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.