Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 53.5 points

74% chanceFair price -2861 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Under 46.5 points

54% chancePrice -110+3.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives San Francisco 49ers 81% and Miami Dolphins 19%. The bookmakers agree and make San Francisco 49ers the favourite at -676.

2. 2
   Recent form

   San Francisco 49ers won 3 of their last 5 and Miami Dolphins won 1 of their last 5. San Francisco 49ers come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   San Francisco 49ers won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Miami Dolphins won 2 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   San Francisco 49ers score 25.3 points a game and let in 21.9. Miami Dolphins score 19.0 and let in 23.9. Their recent games average 47.1 and 42.9 points in total, and the market line is 46.5.

5. 5
   Where the value is

   Under 46.5 points is priced at -110. Our fair price is -119, so the bookmaker pays about 3.6% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. 49ers +3.5 wins if 49ers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.