Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Marlins +2.5

70% chanceFair price -2331 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Arizona Diamondbacks 53% and Miami Marlins 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Arizona Diamondbacks won 4 of their last 5 and Miami Marlins won 1 of their last 5. Arizona Diamondbacks come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Arizona Diamondbacks won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Miami Marlins won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Arizona Diamondbacks score 3.8 runs a game and let in 4.0. Miami Marlins score 4.8 and let in 5.3. Their recent games average 7.8 and 10.0 runs in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, Arizona Diamondbacks won 0 and Miami Marlins won 3. The last one ended Miami Marlins 2, Arizona Diamondbacks 0.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Marlins +2.5 has a 70% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Diamondbacks +3.5 wins if Diamondbacks win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.