Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Padres +1.5

71% chanceFair price -2491 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Marlins to win

41% chanceFair price +1431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives San Diego Padres 59% and Miami Marlins 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   San Diego Padres won 4 of their last 5 and Miami Marlins won 1 of their last 5. San Diego Padres come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   San Diego Padres won 9 of their last 12 games at home. Miami Marlins won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   San Diego Padres score 4.2 runs a game and let in 3.4. Miami Marlins score 4.8 and let in 5.3. Their recent games average 7.5 and 10.0 runs in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 3 meetings, San Diego Padres won 3 and Miami Marlins won 0. The last one ended Miami Marlins 3, San Diego Padres 5.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Padres +1.5 has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Padres +3.5 wins if Padres win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.