Michigan State Spartans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Michigan St +39.5

75% chanceFair price -2931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Notre Dame Fighting Irish 96% and Michigan State Spartans 4%. The bookmakers agree and make Notre Dame Fighting Irish the favourite at -7692.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 5 of their last 5 and Michigan State Spartans won 2 of their last 5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Notre Dame Fighting Irish won 7 of their last 8 games at home. Michigan State Spartans won 0 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Notre Dame Fighting Irish score 43.4 points a game and let in 16.4. Michigan State Spartans score 23.6 and let in 30.3. Their recent games average 59.8 and 53.9 points in total, and the market line is 53.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Michigan St +39.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Notre Dame +3.5 wins if Notre Dame win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.