Predictions › United Kingdom › Middlesbrough vs Norwich City

ChampionshipSat 12 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Middlesbrough vs Norwich City prediction

Riverside Stadium

MiddlesbroughHome

1.74 : 1.23

expected goals

Norwich CityAway

49%Boro

25%Draw

26%Norwich City

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

4/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Norwich City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 4/7.

Prediction: Middlesbrough to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.7, Norwich City 1.2
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 4/7
Both teams to score: 59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

61% chancePrice 4/71 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Middlesbrough 49%, the draw 25% and Norwich City 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Middlesbrough the favourite at 10/11.
2
Recent form
Middlesbrough took 10 points from their last 5 games and Norwich City took 12 from 5. Norwich City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Middlesbrough won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Norwich City won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Middlesbrough score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Norwich City score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Middlesbrough games and 12 of Norwich City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Middlesbrough won 1 and Norwich City won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Middlesbrough 1, Norwich City 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 61% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Middlesbrough vs Norwich City: Middlesbrough are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Middlesbrough host Norwich City in the Championship on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 at Riverside Stadium. Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Norwich City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 4/7.

Middlesbrough form

Middlesbrough have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Norwich City form

Norwich City have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Middlesbrough won 1, Norwich City won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Middlesbrough 1, Norwich City 0.

Our call

We expect Middlesbrough to score about 1.7 goals and Norwich City about 1.2. That points to Middlesbrough to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 4/7. Our bold bet is Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Boro	Norwich City
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	12
Draws	7	2
Losses	6	6
Goals scored	27	34
Goals conceded	23	23
Scored per game	1.4	1.7
Conceded per game	1.1	1.1
Home record	5W 2D 2L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	2W 5D 4L	6W 0D 4L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	60%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Middlesbrough to win	49%	21/20	10/11	-6.8%
A Draw	25%	3/1	3/1	-0.5%
Norwich City to win	26%	11/4	11/4	-2.8%
Over 3.5 goals	39%	8/5	11/8	-9.3%
Under 3.5 goals	61%	8/13	4/7	-2.5%
Middlesbrough -0.5	51%	Evens	4/5	-8.8%
Norwich City +0.5	49%	21/20	10/11	-5.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1/4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	8/11
Over 3.5 goals	35%	15/8
Both teams to score	59%	4/6
Middlesbrough or Draw	74%	4/11
Norwich City or Draw	51%	10/11
Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5	33%	2/1
Norwich City to win and Over 2.5	17%	5/1
Middlesbrough clean sheet	29%	12/5
Norwich City clean sheet	18%	9/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%

2-19.6%

1-08.3%

2-07.8%

1-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Middlesbrough vs Norwich City?

Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Norwich City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 4/7.

What is the score prediction for Middlesbrough vs Norwich City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Middlesbrough to score 1.7 goals and Norwich City 1.2.

Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Norwich City?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Middlesbrough last 20 games and 13 of Norwich City last 20.

How are Middlesbrough playing?

How are Norwich City playing?

What happened when Middlesbrough and Norwich City last met?

It ended Middlesbrough 1, Norwich City 0. In the last 1 meeting Middlesbrough won 1 and Norwich City won 0.

What is the best bet for Middlesbrough vs Norwich City?

Under 3.5 goals at 4/7, with a 61% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.