Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bears to win

61% chancePrice -1701 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Under 45.5 points

55% chancePrice -110+4.3% value2 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Vikings to win

39% chancePrice +1421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Chicago Bears 61% and Minnesota Vikings 39%. The bookmakers agree and make Chicago Bears the favourite at -170.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Chicago Bears won 3 of their last 5 and Minnesota Vikings won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Chicago Bears won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Minnesota Vikings won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Chicago Bears score 25.6 points a game and let in 21.8. Minnesota Vikings score 17.8 and let in 19.3. Their recent games average 47.3 and 37.1 points in total, and the market line is 45.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 1 meeting, Chicago Bears won 1 and Minnesota Vikings won 0. The last one ended Minnesota Vikings 17, Chicago Bears 19.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Under 45.5 points is priced at -110. Our fair price is -120, so the bookmaker pays about 4.3% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Bears +3.5 wins if Bears win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.