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BrasileiraoSat 19 Sept, 20:00 UTC

Mirassol vs Botafogo prediction

Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia

MirassolHome

1.53 : 1.27

expected goals

BotafogoAway

43%Mirassol

26%Draw

31%Botafogo

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mirassol vs Botafogo is Mirassol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Mirassol to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Mirassol 1.5, Botafogo 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mirassol to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.711 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Mirassol 43%, the draw 26% and Botafogo 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Mirassol took 5 points from their last 5 games and Botafogo took 2 from 5. Mirassol come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Mirassol won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Botafogo won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Mirassol score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Botafogo score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Mirassol games and 13 of Botafogo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 3 meetings, Mirassol won 0 and Botafogo won 1 with 2 draws. The last one ended Botafogo 3, Mirassol 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Mirassol vs Botafogo: Mirassol shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mirassol host Botafogo in the Brasileirao on Sat 19 Sept, 20:00 at Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia. Our prediction for Mirassol vs Botafogo is Mirassol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Mirassol form

Mirassol have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Botafogo form

Botafogo have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Mirassol won 0, Botafogo won 1 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Botafogo 3, Mirassol 2.

Our call

We expect Mirassol to score about 1.5 goals and Botafogo about 1.3. That points to Mirassol to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Mirassol to win and Over 2.5 at 3.71.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Mirassol	Botafogo
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	7
Draws	4	7
Losses	10	6
Goals scored	21	29
Goals conceded	31	29
Scored per game	1.1	1.4
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	4W 2D 3L	3W 5D 2L
Away record	2W 2D 7L	4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	5%	15%
Both teams scored	70%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.89
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.25
Both teams to score	57%	1.75
Mirassol or Draw	69%	1.45
Botafogo or Draw	57%	1.74
Mirassol to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.72
Botafogo to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.28
Mirassol clean sheet	28%	3.55
Botafogo clean sheet	22%	4.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

2-19.0%

1-08.6%

1-27.5%

2-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Mirassol vs Botafogo?

Our prediction for Mirassol vs Botafogo is Mirassol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Mirassol vs Botafogo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Mirassol to score 1.5 goals and Botafogo 1.3.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Botafogo?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Mirassol last 20 games and 15 of Botafogo last 20.

How are Mirassol playing?

How are Botafogo playing?

What happened when Mirassol and Botafogo last met?

It ended Botafogo 3, Mirassol 2. In the last 3 meetings Mirassol won 0 and Botafogo won 1.

What is the best bet for Mirassol vs Botafogo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.