Predictions › Brasileirao › Mirassol vs Vitória

BrasileiraoSun 13 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Mirassol vs Vitória prediction

Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia

MirassolHome

1.76 : 0.95

expected goals

VitóriaAway

56%Mirassol

25%Draw

20%Vitória

Eagle safe pickMirassol or Draw

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mirassol vs Vitória is Mirassol to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Mirassol or Draw at 1.24.

Prediction: Mirassol to win
Chance: 56%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Mirassol 1.8, Vitória 0.9
Best bet: Mirassol or Draw at 1.24
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Mirassol or Draw

80% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mirassol to win and Over 2.5

34% chanceFair price 2.911 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Mirassol 56%, the draw 25% and Vitória 20%. The bookmakers agree and make Mirassol the favourite at 1.71.
2
Recent form
Mirassol took 5 points from their last 5 games and Vitória took 6 from 5. Vitória come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Mirassol won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Vitória won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Mirassol score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Vitória score 0.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Mirassol games and 7 of Vitória games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Mirassol won 0 and Vitória won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vitória 1, Mirassol 0.
6
The safest bet
Mirassol or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Mirassol vs Vitória: Mirassol are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mirassol host Vitória in the Brasileirao on Sun 13 Sept, 19:00 at Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia. Our prediction for Mirassol vs Vitória is Mirassol to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Mirassol or Draw at 1.24.

Mirassol form

Mirassol have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Vitória form

Vitória have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Mirassol won 0, Vitória won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vitória 1, Mirassol 0.

Our call

We expect Mirassol to score about 1.8 goals and Vitória about 0.9. That points to Mirassol to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Mirassol or Draw at 1.24. Our bold bet is Mirassol to win and Over 2.5 at 2.91.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Mirassol	Vitória
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	7
Draws	4	4
Losses	10	9
Goals scored	21	18
Goals conceded	31	27
Scored per game	1.1	0.9
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	4W 2D 3L	7W 1D 2L
Away record	2W 2D 7L	0W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	5%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	30%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Mirassol to win	56%	1.80	1.71	-4.6%
A Draw	25%	4.04	3.70	-8.4%
Vitória to win	20%	5.10	4.50	-11.8%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.00	1.87	-6.6%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.00	1.83	-8.2%
Mirassol -0.5	55%	1.81	1.67	-7.8%
Vitória +0.5	45%	2.24	2.05	-8.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.96
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.47
Both teams to score	52%	1.94
Mirassol or Draw	80%	1.24
Vitória or Draw	44%	2.25
Mirassol to win and Over 2.5	34%	2.91
Vitória to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.16
Mirassol clean sheet	39%	2.59
Vitória clean sheet	17%	5.80

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

1-011.0%

2-010.3%

2-19.8%

0-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Mirassol vs Vitória?

Our prediction for Mirassol vs Vitória is Mirassol to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Mirassol or Draw at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Mirassol vs Vitória?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Mirassol to score 1.8 goals and Vitória 0.9.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Vitória?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Mirassol last 20 games and 6 of Vitória last 20.

How are Mirassol playing?

How are Vitória playing?

What happened when Mirassol and Vitória last met?

It ended Vitória 1, Mirassol 0. In the last 2 meetings Mirassol won 0 and Vitória won 2.

What is the best bet for Mirassol vs Vitória?

Mirassol or Draw at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.