Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Minnesota Golden Gophers prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Under 64.5 points

74% chanceFair price -2851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Minnesota Golden Gophers 48% and Mississippi State Bulldogs 52%. The bookmakers agree and make Mississippi State Bulldogs the favourite at -115.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Minnesota Golden Gophers won 3 of their last 5 and Mississippi State Bulldogs won 1 of their last 5. Minnesota Golden Gophers come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Minnesota Golden Gophers won 7 of their last 7 games at home. Mississippi State Bulldogs won 1 of their last 4 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Minnesota Golden Gophers score 22.4 points a game and let in 24.6. Mississippi State Bulldogs score 33.3 and let in 30.8. Their recent games average 47.0 and 64.0 points in total, and the market line is 54.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Under 64.5 points has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Minnesota +3.5 wins if Minnesota win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.