Predictions › Liga MX › Monterrey vs Tigres UANL

Liga MXSun 13 Sept, 01:10 UTC

Monterrey vs Tigres UANL prediction

Estadio BBVA

MonterreyHome

1.68 : 1.35

expected goals

Tigres UANLAway

45%Monterrey

25%Draw

30%Tigres

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Monterrey vs Tigres UANL is Monterrey to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Monterrey to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Monterrey 1.7, Tigres UANL 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Monterrey to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Monterrey 45%, the draw 25% and Tigres UANL 30%. The bookmakers agree and make Monterrey the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
Monterrey took 6 points from their last 5 games and Tigres UANL took 5 from 5. Monterrey come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Monterrey won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Tigres UANL won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Monterrey score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Tigres UANL score 1.5 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Monterrey games and 11 of Tigres UANL games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Monterrey won 0 and Tigres UANL won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Tigres UANL 1, Monterrey 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Monterrey vs Tigres UANL: Monterrey shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Monterrey host Tigres UANL in the Liga MX on Sun 13 Sept, 01:10 at Estadio BBVA. Our prediction for Monterrey vs Tigres UANL is Monterrey to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Monterrey form

Monterrey have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Tigres UANL form

Tigres UANL have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Monterrey won 0, Tigres UANL won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Tigres UANL 1, Monterrey 0.

Our call

We expect Monterrey to score about 1.7 goals and Tigres UANL about 1.4. That points to Monterrey to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Monterrey to win and Over 2.5 at 3.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Monterrey	Tigres
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	6
Draws	3	6
Losses	11	8
Goals scored	28	30
Goals conceded	32	26
Scored per game	1.4	1.5
Conceded per game	1.6	1.3
Home record	5W 1D 5L	5W 3D 1L
Away record	1W 2D 6L	1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Monterrey to win	45%	2.24	2.25	+0.6%
A Draw	25%	3.99	3.35	-15.9%
Tigres UANL to win	30%	3.31	3.05	-7.9%
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.72	1.61	-6.8%
Under 2.5 goals	42%	2.38	2.20	-7.6%
Monterrey -0.5	44%	2.29	2.10	-8.1%
Tigres UANL +0.5	56%	1.78	1.61	-9.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.77
Both teams to score	61%	1.64
Monterrey or Draw	70%	1.43
Tigres UANL or Draw	55%	1.81
Monterrey to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.28
Tigres UANL to win and Over 2.5	20%	5.00
Monterrey clean sheet	26%	3.86
Tigres UANL clean sheet	19%	5.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.6%

2-19.2%

1-07.4%

1-27.4%

2-06.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

Our prediction for Monterrey vs Tigres UANL is Monterrey to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Monterrey to score 1.7 goals and Tigres UANL 1.4.

Will both teams score in Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Monterrey last 20 games and 13 of Tigres UANL last 20.

How are Monterrey playing?

How are Tigres UANL playing?

What happened when Monterrey and Tigres UANL last met?

It ended Tigres UANL 1, Monterrey 0. In the last 2 meetings Monterrey won 0 and Tigres UANL won 1.

What is the best bet for Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.