Predictions › Serie A › Monza vs Sassuolo

Serie AFri 18 Sept, 18:45 UTC

Monza vs Sassuolo prediction

U-Power Stadium

MonzaHome

1.28 : 1.36

expected goals

SassuoloAway

34%Monza

28%Draw

38%Sassuolo

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.34

Quick answer

Our prediction for Monza vs Sassuolo is Sassuolo to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Prediction: Sassuolo to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Monza 1.3, Sassuolo 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.34
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.341 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.591 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Monza 34%, the draw 28% and Sassuolo 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Sassuolo the favourite at 2.40.
2
Recent form
Monza took 1 point from their last 3 games and Sassuolo took 4 from 5. Sassuolo come in with the better run.
3
Goals
Monza score 1.3 goals a game and let in 2.7. Sassuolo score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of Monza games and 14 of Sassuolo games in that run.
4
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Monza vs Sassuolo: Sassuolo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Monza host Sassuolo in the Serie A on Fri 18 Sept, 18:45 at U-Power Stadium. Our prediction for Monza vs Sassuolo is Sassuolo to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

Monza form

Monza have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 3 games, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 3 results read D, L, L, newest first.

Sassuolo form

Sassuolo have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Monza to score about 1.3 goals and Sassuolo about 1.4. That points to Sassuolo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.59.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Monza	Sassuolo
Games played	3	20
Wins	0	9
Draws	1	3
Losses	2	8
Goals scored	4	28
Goals conceded	8	27
Scored per game	1.3	1.4
Conceded per game	2.7	1.4
Home record	0W 0D 1L	7W 0D 3L
Away record	0W 1D 1L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Both teams scored	100%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	67%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Monza to win	34%	2.92	2.65	-9.2%
A Draw	28%	3.62	3.30	-8.8%
Sassuolo to win	38%	2.62	2.40	-8.5%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.04	1.91	-6.4%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.96	1.83	-6.6%
Monza +0.5	61%	1.63	1.50	-8.1%
Sassuolo -0.5	39%	2.58	2.35	-9.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.34
Over 2.5 goals	49%	2.04
Over 3.5 goals	27%	3.67
Both teams to score	54%	1.84
Monza or Draw	62%	1.62
Sassuolo or Draw	66%	1.52
Monza to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.99
Sassuolo to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.44
Monza clean sheet	26%	3.90
Sassuolo clean sheet	28%	3.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%

0-19.0%

1-28.5%

1-08.4%

2-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Monza vs Sassuolo?

Our prediction for Monza vs Sassuolo is Sassuolo to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.34.

What is the score prediction for Monza vs Sassuolo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Monza to score 1.3 goals and Sassuolo 1.4.

Will both teams score in Monza vs Sassuolo?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 3 of Monza last 3 games and 13 of Sassuolo last 20.

How are Monza playing?

Monza have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 3 games, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 3 results read D, L, L, newest first.

How are Sassuolo playing?

What is the best bet for Monza vs Sassuolo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.34, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.