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Predictions › Primeira Liga › Moreirense vs Maritimo
Primeira LigaMon 14 Sept, 19:15 UTC

Moreirense vs Maritimo prediction

Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

MoreirenseHome
1.24 : 1.15
expected goals
MaritimoAway
37%Moreirense
29%Draw
33%Maritimo
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Maritimo is Moreirense to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Moreirense to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Moreirense 1.2, Maritimo 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.221 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Moreirense 37%, the draw 29% and Maritimo 33%. The bookmakers agree and make Moreirense the favourite at 2.45.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Moreirense took 4 points from their last 5 games and Maritimo took 7 from 5. Maritimo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    Moreirense score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.8. Maritimo score 1.2 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Moreirense games and 4 of Maritimo games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Moreirense vs Maritimo: Moreirense shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Moreirense host Maritimo in the Primeira Liga on Mon 14 Sept, 19:15 at Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Our prediction for Moreirense vs Maritimo is Moreirense to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Moreirense form

Moreirense have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Maritimo form

Maritimo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss from 2. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Moreirense to score about 1.2 goals and Maritimo about 1.1. That points to Moreirense to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.22.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MoreirenseMaritimo
Games played205
Wins42
Draws51
Losses112
Goals scored156
Goals conceded358
Scored per game0.81.2
Conceded per game1.81.6
Home record2W 3D 5L1W 1D 1L
Away record2W 2D 6L1W 0D 1L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored45%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Moreirense to win37%2.672.45-8.3%
A Draw29%3.423.15-7.8%
Maritimo to win33%3.002.90-3.5%
Over 2.5 goals42%2.372.20-7.3%
Under 2.5 goals58%1.731.59-8.1%
Moreirense -0.539%2.562.30-10.3%
Maritimo +0.561%1.641.51-7.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.44
Over 2.5 goals43%2.34
Over 3.5 goals22%4.57
Both teams to score49%2.03
Moreirense or Draw67%1.50
Maritimo or Draw63%1.60
Moreirense to win and Over 2.520%5.04
Maritimo to win and Over 2.517%5.74
Moreirense clean sheet32%3.16
Maritimo clean sheet29%3.44

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%
1-010.6%
0-010.0%
0-19.8%
2-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Moreirense vs Maritimo?

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Maritimo is Moreirense to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Moreirense vs Maritimo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Moreirense to score 1.2 goals and Maritimo 1.1.

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Maritimo?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Moreirense last 20 games and 3 of Maritimo last 5.

How are Moreirense playing?

Moreirense have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Maritimo playing?

Maritimo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 1 loss from 2. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Moreirense vs Maritimo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.