Predictions › United Kingdom › Motherwell vs Aberdeen

Scottish PremiershipTue 15 Sept, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Motherwell vs Aberdeen prediction

Fir Park

MotherwellHome

1.77 : 0.90

expected goals

AberdeenAway

57%Motherwell

24%Draw

18%Aberdeen

Eagle value pickMotherwell to win

5/6

Quick answer

Our prediction for Motherwell vs Aberdeen is Motherwell to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Motherwell to win at 5/6.

Prediction: Motherwell to win
Chance: 57%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.8, Aberdeen 0.9
Best bet: Motherwell to win at 5/6
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Motherwell or Draw

82% chanceFair price 2/92 units

★

Eagle value pick

Motherwell to win

57% chancePrice 5/6+7.5% value2 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Motherwell to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 15/81 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Motherwell 57%, the draw 24% and Aberdeen 18%. The bookmakers agree and make Motherwell the favourite at 5/6.
2
Recent form
Motherwell took 8 points from their last 5 games and Aberdeen took 4 from 5. Motherwell come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Motherwell won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Aberdeen won 0 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Motherwell score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. Aberdeen score 0.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Motherwell games and 8 of Aberdeen games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 3 meetings, Motherwell won 2 and Aberdeen won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Motherwell 2, Aberdeen 0.
6
Where the value is
Motherwell to win is priced at 5/6. Our fair price is 8/11, so the bookmaker pays about 7.5% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Motherwell vs Aberdeen: Motherwell are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Motherwell host Aberdeen in the Scottish Premiership on Tue 15 Sept, 19:45 at Fir Park. Our prediction for Motherwell vs Aberdeen is Motherwell to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Motherwell to win at 5/6.

Motherwell form

Motherwell have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Aberdeen form

Aberdeen have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Motherwell won 2, Aberdeen won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Motherwell 2, Aberdeen 0.

Our call

We expect Motherwell to score about 1.8 goals and Aberdeen about 0.9. That points to Motherwell to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Motherwell or Draw at 2/9. Our value bet is Motherwell to win at 5/6. Our bold bet is Motherwell to win and Over 2.5 at 15/8.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Motherwell	Aberdeen
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	4
Draws	5	4
Losses	7	12
Goals scored	32	16
Goals conceded	24	32
Scored per game	1.6	0.8
Conceded per game	1.2	1.6
Home record	3W 4D 2L	4W 2D 4L
Away record	5W 1D 5L	0W 2D 8L
Clean sheets	40%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	35%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Motherwell to win	57%	8/11	5/6	+7.5%
A Draw	24%	3/1	13/5	-11.9%
Aberdeen to win	18%	9/2	11/4	-31.4%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	5/6	4/6	-10.7%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	6/5	21/20	-4.8%
Motherwell -0.5	53%	10/11	4/5	-6.5%
Aberdeen +0.5	47%	11/10	5/6	-13.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1/3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	Evens
Over 3.5 goals	28%	13/5
Both teams to score	50%	Evens
Motherwell or Draw	82%	2/9
Aberdeen or Draw	43%	11/8
Motherwell to win and Over 2.5	35%	15/8
Aberdeen to win and Over 2.5	10%	9/1
Motherwell clean sheet	41%	7/5
Aberdeen clean sheet	17%	5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.7%

1-011.6%

2-010.9%

2-19.8%

0-07.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Our prediction for Motherwell vs Aberdeen is Motherwell to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Motherwell to win at 5/6.

What is the score prediction for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Motherwell to score 1.8 goals and Aberdeen 0.9.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Motherwell last 20 games and 7 of Aberdeen last 20.

How are Motherwell playing?

How are Aberdeen playing?

What happened when Motherwell and Aberdeen last met?

It ended Motherwell 2, Aberdeen 0. In the last 3 meetings Motherwell won 2 and Aberdeen won 0.

What is the best bet for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Motherwell to win at 5/6, with a 57% chance. That price pays about 7.5% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.