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Napoli vs Bologna prediction
Sun 13 Sept, 16:00 UTC, Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli1.53 - 1.02
expected goals
BolognaNapoli 48%Draw 27%Bologna 25%
Our three picks
✓
Safest pick
Napoli or Draw
⚡
Bold pick
Napoli to win and Over 2.5
No value bet here: at the current prices the bookmaker is not giving more than our model thinks is fair. We would rather say so than force one.
Price check against DraftKings
Our chance mixes the model with the market. Value is how much the price pays above our fair price.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli to win | 48% | 2.07 | 1.80 | -13.0% |
| A Draw | 27% | 3.68 | 3.45 | -6.3% |
| Bologna to win | 24% | 4.08 | 4.30 | +5.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.14 | 2.10 | -1.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 | 1.74 | -7.3% |
| Napoli -0.5 | 48% | 2.07 | 1.74 | -15.8% |
| Bologna +0.5 | 52% | 1.94 | 1.95 | +0.8% |
Goals and other markets
| Market | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.14 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 3.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 1.97 |
| Napoli or Draw | 76% | 1.32 |
| Bologna or Draw | 52% | 1.94 |
| Napoli to win and Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.58 |
| Bologna to win and Over 2.5 | 13% | 7.59 |
| Napoli clean sheet | 36% | 2.77 |
| Bologna clean sheet | 22% | 4.60 |
Most likely scores
1-112.9%
1-011.3%
2-19.3%
2-09.2%
0-08.6%
Questions people ask
Who will win Napoli vs Bologna?
Our model gives Napoli a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Bologna 25%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Bologna?
We expect about 2.5 goals (Napoli 1.53, Bologna 1.02). Over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Bologna?
Both teams to score has a 51% chance according to our model.
What is the most likely score?
1-1, with a 12.9% chance, followed by 1-0 and 2-1.