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Liga MXSat 12 Sept, 01:00 UTC

Necaxa vs Puebla prediction

Estadio Victoria

NecaxaHome

1.62 : 1.22

expected goals

PueblaAway

46%Necaxa

26%Draw

28%Puebla

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Necaxa vs Puebla is Necaxa to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: Necaxa to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Necaxa 1.6, Puebla 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Necaxa to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.371 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Necaxa 46%, the draw 26% and Puebla 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Necaxa the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Necaxa took 2 points from their last 5 games and Puebla took 7 from 5. Puebla come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Necaxa won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Puebla won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Necaxa score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Puebla score 1.0 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Necaxa games and 11 of Puebla games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Necaxa won 1 and Puebla won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Puebla 0, Necaxa 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Necaxa vs Puebla: Necaxa are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Necaxa host Puebla in the Liga MX on Sat 12 Sept, 01:00 at Estadio Victoria. Our prediction for Necaxa vs Puebla is Necaxa to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Necaxa form

Necaxa have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Puebla form

Puebla have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Necaxa won 1, Puebla won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Puebla 0, Necaxa 0.

Our call

We expect Necaxa to score about 1.6 goals and Puebla about 1.2. That points to Necaxa to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Necaxa to win and Over 2.5 at 3.37.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Necaxa	Puebla
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	5
Draws	5	5
Losses	9	10
Goals scored	25	20
Goals conceded	31	32
Scored per game	1.3	1.0
Conceded per game	1.6	1.6
Home record	5W 2D 4L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	1W 3D 5L	3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	15%	25%
Both teams scored	75%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Necaxa to win	46%	2.17	2.05	-5.3%
A Draw	26%	3.86	3.55	-8.1%
Puebla to win	28%	3.58	3.45	-3.6%
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.79	1.65	-8.1%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.27	2.15	-5.1%
Necaxa -0.5	47%	2.13	1.95	-8.5%
Puebla +0.5	53%	1.88	1.74	-7.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.85
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.16
Both teams to score	57%	1.75
Necaxa or Draw	72%	1.39
Puebla or Draw	54%	1.86
Necaxa to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.37
Puebla to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.82
Necaxa clean sheet	30%	3.37
Puebla clean sheet	20%	5.07

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%

2-19.4%

1-08.8%

2-07.7%

1-27.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Necaxa vs Puebla?

Our prediction for Necaxa vs Puebla is Necaxa to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Necaxa vs Puebla?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Necaxa to score 1.6 goals and Puebla 1.2.

Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Puebla?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Necaxa last 20 games and 11 of Puebla last 20.

How are Necaxa playing?

How are Puebla playing?

What happened when Necaxa and Puebla last met?

It ended Puebla 0, Necaxa 0. In the last 2 meetings Necaxa won 1 and Puebla won 0.

What is the best bet for Necaxa vs Puebla?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.