New York Mets vs New York Yankees prediction

The eagle's three picks

Picks are made up to two hours before kick off and then locked, so there are none for this game.

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives New York Yankees 56% and New York Mets 44%. The bookmakers agree and make New York Yankees the favourite at -137.

2. 2
   Recent form

   New York Yankees won 4 of their last 5 and New York Mets won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   New York Yankees won 9 of their last 13 games at home. New York Mets won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   New York Yankees score 5.4 runs a game and let in 3.3. New York Mets score 5.1 and let in 5.0. Their recent games average 8.7 and 10.2 runs in total, and the market line is 8.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, New York Yankees won 1 and New York Mets won 4. The last one ended New York Mets 7, New York Yankees 6.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Yankees +3.5 wins if Yankees win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.