North Dakota State Bison vs Air Force Falcons prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Air Force +11.5

74% chanceFair price -2831 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Air Force Falcons 47% and North Dakota State Bison 53%. The bookmakers agree and make North Dakota State Bison the favourite at -125.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Air Force Falcons won 3 of their last 5 and North Dakota State Bison won 4 of their last 5. North Dakota State Bison come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Air Force Falcons won 2 of their last 6 games at home. North Dakota State Bison won 4 of their last 4 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Air Force Falcons score 28.6 points a game and let in 29.3. North Dakota State Bison score 39.1 and let in 13.3. Their recent games average 57.8 and 52.4 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Air Force +11.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 13 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Air Force +3.5 wins if Air Force win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.