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Predictions › Belgian Pro League › OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV
Belgian Pro LeagueSat 12 Sept, 18:45 UTC

OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV prediction

King Power at Den Dreef Stadion

OH LeuvenHome
1.38 : 1.55
expected goals
Cercle Brugge KSVAway
33%OH Leuven
26%Draw
41%Cercle Brugge
Eagle value pickCercle Brugge KSV to win
2.65

Quick answer

Our prediction for OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV is Cercle Brugge KSV to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cercle Brugge KSV to win at 2.65.

Prediction
Cercle Brugge KSV to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
OH Leuven 1.4, Cercle Brugge KSV 1.6
Best bet
Cercle Brugge KSV to win at 2.65
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Cercle Brugge KSV +0.5
63% chancePrice 1.511 unit
★

Eagle value pick

Cercle Brugge KSV to win
41% chancePrice 2.65+8.0% value2 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cercle Brugge KSV to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.731 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives OH Leuven 33%, the draw 26% and Cercle Brugge KSV 41%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make OH Leuven the favourite at 2.50, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    OH Leuven took 0 points from their last 5 games and Cercle Brugge KSV took 2 from 5. Cercle Brugge KSV come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    OH Leuven won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Cercle Brugge KSV won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    OH Leuven score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.9. Cercle Brugge KSV score 1.6 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of OH Leuven games and 15 of Cercle Brugge KSV games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, OH Leuven won 1 and Cercle Brugge KSV won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended OH Leuven 0, Cercle Brugge KSV 2.

  6. 6
    Where the value is

    Cercle Brugge KSV to win is priced at 2.65. Our fair price is 2.45, so the bookmaker pays about 8.0% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV: Cercle Brugge KSV shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

OH Leuven host Cercle Brugge KSV in the Belgian Pro League on Sat 12 Sept, 18:45 at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. Our prediction for OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV is Cercle Brugge KSV to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cercle Brugge KSV to win at 2.65.

OH Leuven form

OH Leuven have 3 wins, 3 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Cercle Brugge KSV form

Cercle Brugge KSV have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. OH Leuven won 1, Cercle Brugge KSV won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished OH Leuven 0, Cercle Brugge KSV 2.

Our call

We expect OH Leuven to score about 1.4 goals and Cercle Brugge KSV about 1.6. That points to Cercle Brugge KSV to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Cercle Brugge KSV +0.5 at 1.51. Our value bet is Cercle Brugge KSV to win at 2.65. Our bold bet is Cercle Brugge KSV to win and Over 2.5 at 3.73.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

OH LeuvenCercle Brugge
Games played2020
Wins36
Draws35
Losses149
Goals scored1631
Goals conceded3738
Scored per game0.81.6
Conceded per game1.91.9
Home record2W 0D 7L2W 2D 6L
Away record1W 3D 7L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored40%65%
Over 2.5 goals50%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
OH Leuven to win33%3.002.50-16.6%
A Draw26%3.863.55-8.1%
Cercle Brugge KSV to win41%2.452.65+8.0%
Over 2.5 goals57%1.751.63-7.2%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.332.20-5.6%
OH Leuven -0.537%2.702.40-11.0%
Cercle Brugge KSV +0.563%1.591.51-4.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.78
Over 3.5 goals34%2.96
Both teams to score60%1.68
OH Leuven or Draw59%1.69
Cercle Brugge KSV or Draw67%1.50
OH Leuven to win and Over 2.522%4.63
Cercle Brugge KSV to win and Over 2.527%3.73
OH Leuven clean sheet21%4.71
Cercle Brugge KSV clean sheet25%3.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
1-28.8%
2-17.9%
0-17.6%
1-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV?

Our prediction for OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV is Cercle Brugge KSV to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Cercle Brugge KSV to win at 2.65.

What is the score prediction for OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect OH Leuven to score 1.4 goals and Cercle Brugge KSV 1.6.

Will both teams score in OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of OH Leuven last 20 games and 13 of Cercle Brugge KSV last 20.

How are OH Leuven playing?

OH Leuven have 3 wins, 3 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Cercle Brugge KSV playing?

Cercle Brugge KSV have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, D, newest first.

What happened when OH Leuven and Cercle Brugge KSV last met?

It ended OH Leuven 0, Cercle Brugge KSV 2. In the last 2 meetings OH Leuven won 1 and Cercle Brugge KSV won 1.

What is the best bet for OH Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV?

Cercle Brugge KSV to win at 2.65, with a 41% chance. That price pays about 8.0% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.