Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Texas +8.5

75% chanceFair price -2951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Texas Longhorns 53% and Ohio State Buckeyes 47%. The bookmakers agree and make Texas Longhorns the favourite at -118.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Texas Longhorns won 4 of their last 5 and Ohio State Buckeyes won 3 of their last 5. Texas Longhorns come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Texas Longhorns won 8 of their last 8 games at home. Ohio State Buckeyes won 5 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Texas Longhorns score 34.2 points a game and let in 20.8. Ohio State Buckeyes score 33.8 and let in 9.7. Their recent games average 55.0 and 43.5 points in total, and the market line is 49.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Texas +8.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 13 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Texas +3.5 wins if Texas win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.