Predictions › United Kingdom › Oxford United vs Burton Albion

League OneSat 12 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Oxford United vs Burton Albion prediction

The Kassam Stadium

Oxford UnitedHome

1.65 : 1.09

expected goals

Burton AlbionAway

50%Oxford Utd

26%Draw

25%Burton Albion

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Oxford United vs Burton Albion is Oxford United to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Oxford United to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Oxford United 1.6, Burton Albion 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Oxford United to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 9/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Oxford United 50%, the draw 26% and Burton Albion 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Oxford United the favourite at 5/6.
2
Recent form
Oxford United took 7 points from their last 5 games and Burton Albion took 8 from 5. Burton Albion come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Oxford United won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Burton Albion won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Oxford United score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Burton Albion score 1.3 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Oxford United games and 10 of Burton Albion games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Oxford United vs Burton Albion: Oxford United are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Oxford United host Burton Albion in the League One on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 at The Kassam Stadium. Our prediction for Oxford United vs Burton Albion is Oxford United to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Oxford United form

Oxford United have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Burton Albion form

Burton Albion have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Oxford United to score about 1.6 goals and Burton Albion about 1.1. That points to Oxford United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Oxford United to win and Over 2.5 at 9/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Oxford Utd	Burton Albion
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	6
Draws	5	8
Losses	8	6
Goals scored	26	26
Goals conceded	26	23
Scored per game	1.3	1.3
Conceded per game	1.3	1.1
Home record	4W 3D 2L	4W 4D 3L
Away record	3W 2D 6L	2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Oxford United to win	50%	Evens	5/6	-7.3%
A Draw	26%	11/4	11/4	-3.0%
Burton Albion to win	25%	3/1	3/1	-3.0%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	10/11	4/5	-6.6%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	11/10	10/11	-6.1%
Oxford United -0.5	51%	Evens	4/5	-8.4%
Burton Albion +0.5	49%	21/20	10/11	-6.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	3/10
Over 2.5 goals	52%	10/11
Over 3.5 goals	30%	12/5
Both teams to score	54%	5/6
Oxford United or Draw	75%	1/3
Burton Albion or Draw	50%	Evens
Oxford United to win and Over 2.5	31%	9/4
Burton Albion to win and Over 2.5	14%	6/1
Oxford United clean sheet	33%	2/1
Burton Albion clean sheet	19%	4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

1-09.9%

2-19.6%

2-08.7%

0-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Oxford United vs Burton Albion?

Our prediction for Oxford United vs Burton Albion is Oxford United to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Oxford United vs Burton Albion?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Oxford United to score 1.6 goals and Burton Albion 1.1.

Will both teams score in Oxford United vs Burton Albion?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Oxford United last 20 games and 13 of Burton Albion last 20.

How are Oxford United playing?

How are Burton Albion playing?

What is the best bet for Oxford United vs Burton Albion?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.