Predictions › Brasileirao › Palmeiras vs São Paulo

BrasileiraoSat 12 Sept, 21:30 UTC

Palmeiras vs São Paulo prediction

Allianz Parque

PalmeirasHome

1.74 : 0.78

expected goals

São PauloAway

60%Palmeiras

25%Draw

16%São Paulo

Eagle safe pickPalmeiras or Draw

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo is Palmeiras to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction: Palmeiras to win
Chance: 60%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.7, São Paulo 0.8
Best bet: Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Palmeiras or Draw

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5

34% chanceFair price 2.931 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Palmeiras 60%, the draw 25% and São Paulo 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Palmeiras the favourite at 1.65.
2
Recent form
Palmeiras took 6 points from their last 5 games and São Paulo took 7 from 5. São Paulo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Palmeiras won 5 of their last 9 games at home. São Paulo won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Palmeiras score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.7. São Paulo score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Palmeiras games and 9 of São Paulo games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Palmeiras won 2 and São Paulo won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended São Paulo 0, Palmeiras 1.
6
The safest bet
Palmeiras or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Palmeiras vs São Paulo: Palmeiras are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Palmeiras host São Paulo in the Brasileirao on Sat 12 Sept, 21:30 at Allianz Parque. Our prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo is Palmeiras to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, D, newest first.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Palmeiras won 2, São Paulo won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished São Paulo 0, Palmeiras 1.

Our call

We expect Palmeiras to score about 1.7 goals and São Paulo about 0.8. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5 at 2.93.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Palmeiras	São Paulo
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	5
Draws	7	5
Losses	2	10
Goals scored	31	23
Goals conceded	14	26
Scored per game	1.6	1.1
Conceded per game	0.7	1.3
Home record	5W 3D 1L	4W 3D 2L
Away record	6W 4D 1L	1W 2D 8L
Clean sheets	45%	10%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Palmeiras to win	60%	1.68	1.65	-1.9%
A Draw	25%	4.07	3.80	-6.6%
São Paulo to win	16%	6.35	5.25	-17.3%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.11	1.95	-7.4%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.80	-5.3%
Palmeiras -0.5	58%	1.71	1.61	-6.3%
São Paulo +0.5	42%	2.40	2.20	-8.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.17
Over 3.5 goals	25%	4.06
Both teams to score	45%	2.21
Palmeiras or Draw	84%	1.19
São Paulo or Draw	40%	2.48
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5	34%	2.93
São Paulo to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.99
Palmeiras clean sheet	46%	2.18
São Paulo clean sheet	18%	5.70

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.4%

2-012.2%

1-111.6%

2-19.5%

0-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Palmeiras vs São Paulo?

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo is Palmeiras to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Palmeiras to score 1.7 goals and São Paulo 0.8.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs São Paulo?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Palmeiras last 20 games and 13 of São Paulo last 20.

How are Palmeiras playing?

How are São Paulo playing?

What happened when Palmeiras and São Paulo last met?

It ended São Paulo 0, Palmeiras 1. In the last 2 meetings Palmeiras won 2 and São Paulo won 0.

What is the best bet for Palmeiras vs São Paulo?

Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.