Predictions › Serie A › Parma vs Genoa

Serie ASun 20 Sept, 13:00 UTC

Parma vs Genoa prediction

Ennio Tardini

ParmaHome

0.95 : 1.05

expected goals

GenoaAway

31%Parma

32%Draw

36%Genoa

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Parma vs Genoa is Genoa to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: Genoa to win
Chance: 36%
Most likely score: 0-0
Expected goals: Parma 0.9, Genoa 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

86% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0

14% chanceFair price 6.961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Parma 31%, the draw 32% and Genoa 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Genoa the favourite at 2.45.
2
Recent form
Parma took 4 points from their last 5 games and Genoa took 0 from 5. Parma come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Parma won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Genoa won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Parma score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Genoa score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of Parma games and 9 of Genoa games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Parma won 0 and Genoa won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Parma 0, Genoa 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Parma vs Genoa: Genoa shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Parma host Genoa in the Serie A on Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 at Ennio Tardini. Our prediction for Parma vs Genoa is Genoa to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

Parma form

Parma have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Genoa form

Genoa have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Parma won 0, Genoa won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Parma 0, Genoa 0.

Our call

We expect Parma to score about 0.9 goals and Genoa about 1.1. That points to Genoa to win, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 6.96.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Parma	Genoa
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	6
Draws	5	3
Losses	9	11
Goals scored	15	20
Goals conceded	28	29
Scored per game	0.8	1.0
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	3W 3D 4L	4W 0D 6L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	25%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Parma to win	31%	3.20	2.90	-9.3%
A Draw	32%	3.08	2.85	-7.6%
Genoa to win	36%	2.76	2.45	-11.1%
Over 1.5 goals	61%	1.64	1.50	-8.3%
Under 1.5 goals	39%	2.57	2.40	-6.7%
Parma +0.5	62%	1.61	1.48	-8.3%
Genoa -0.5	38%	2.64	2.35	-11.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	60%	1.66
Over 2.5 goals	32%	3.10
Over 3.5 goals	14%	7.01
Both teams to score	41%	2.46
Parma or Draw	64%	1.57
Genoa or Draw	69%	1.46
Parma to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.66
Genoa to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.46
Parma clean sheet	35%	2.85
Genoa clean sheet	39%	2.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-014.4%

1-114.3%

0-113.4%

1-012.1%

0-27.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Parma vs Genoa?

Our prediction for Parma vs Genoa is Genoa to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Parma vs Genoa?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-1. We expect Parma to score 0.9 goals and Genoa 1.1.

Will both teams score in Parma vs Genoa?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Parma last 20 games and 8 of Genoa last 20.

How are Parma playing?

How are Genoa playing?

What happened when Parma and Genoa last met?

It ended Parma 0, Genoa 0. In the last 2 meetings Parma won 0 and Genoa won 0.

What is the best bet for Parma vs Genoa?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.