Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves prediction

The eagle's three picks

Picks are made up to two hours before kick off and then locked, so there are none for this game.

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Atlanta Braves 62% and Philadelphia Phillies 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlanta Braves the favourite at -187.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Atlanta Braves won 2 of their last 5 and Philadelphia Phillies won 2 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Atlanta Braves won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Philadelphia Phillies won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Atlanta Braves score 3.3 runs a game and let in 3.3. Philadelphia Phillies score 4.5 and let in 3.2. Their recent games average 6.5 and 7.7 runs in total, and the market line is 7.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, Atlanta Braves won 3 and Philadelphia Phillies won 2. The last one ended Philadelphia Phillies 1, Atlanta Braves 0.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Braves +3.5 wins if Braves win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.