Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Braves +1.5

64% chancePrice -157+5.1% value2 units

★

Eagle value pick

Braves +1.5

64% chancePrice -157+5.1% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Atlanta Braves 48% and Philadelphia Phillies 52%. The bookmakers agree and make Philadelphia Phillies the favourite at -126.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Atlanta Braves won 2 of their last 5 and Philadelphia Phillies won 2 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Atlanta Braves won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Philadelphia Phillies won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Atlanta Braves score 3.3 runs a game and let in 3.3. Philadelphia Phillies score 4.5 and let in 3.2. Their recent games average 6.5 and 7.7 runs in total, and the market line is 7.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, Atlanta Braves won 3 and Philadelphia Phillies won 2. The last one ended Philadelphia Phillies 1, Atlanta Braves 0.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Braves +1.5 is priced at -157. Our fair price is -179, so the bookmaker pays about 5.1% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Braves +3.5 wins if Braves win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.