Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Mets +2.5

71% chanceFair price -2451 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives New York Mets 48% and Philadelphia Phillies 52%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   New York Mets won 4 of their last 5 and Philadelphia Phillies won 2 of their last 5. New York Mets come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   New York Mets won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Philadelphia Phillies won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   New York Mets score 5.1 runs a game and let in 5.0. Philadelphia Phillies score 4.5 and let in 3.2. Their recent games average 10.2 and 7.7 runs in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, New York Mets won 3 and Philadelphia Phillies won 2. The last one ended Philadelphia Phillies 1, New York Mets 6.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Mets +2.5 has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Mets +3.5 wins if Mets win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.