Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Wings to win

82% chanceFair price -4572 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Dallas Wings 82% and Phoenix Mercury 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Dallas Wings won 4 of their last 5 and Phoenix Mercury won 1 of their last 5. Dallas Wings come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Dallas Wings won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Phoenix Mercury won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Dallas Wings score 89.7 points a game and let in 85.2. Phoenix Mercury score 84.4 and let in 87.7. Their recent games average 174.9 and 172.1 points in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 2 meetings, Dallas Wings won 2 and Phoenix Mercury won 0. The last one ended Dallas Wings 85, Phoenix Mercury 70.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Wings to win has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Wings +3.5 wins if Wings win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.