Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Fire +8.5

74% chanceFair price -2901 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Portland Fire 47% and Phoenix Mercury 53%. The bookmakers agree and make Phoenix Mercury the favourite at -122.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Portland Fire won 1 of their last 5 and Phoenix Mercury won 1 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Portland Fire won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Phoenix Mercury won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Portland Fire score 88.5 points a game and let in 89.8. Phoenix Mercury score 84.4 and let in 87.7. Their recent games average 178.3 and 172.1 points in total, and the market line is 176.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 2 meetings, Portland Fire won 1 and Phoenix Mercury won 1. The last one ended Phoenix Mercury 85, Portland Fire 88.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Fire +8.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Fire +3.5 wins if Fire win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.