Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Cubs +1.5

68% chancePrice -194+2.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Chicago Cubs 54% and Pittsburgh Pirates 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Chicago Cubs the favourite at -126.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Chicago Cubs won 1 of their last 5 and Pittsburgh Pirates won 4 of their last 5. Pittsburgh Pirates come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Chicago Cubs won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Pittsburgh Pirates won 7 of their last 13 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Chicago Cubs score 6.8 runs a game and let in 4.9. Pittsburgh Pirates score 3.5 and let in 3.6. Their recent games average 11.7 and 7.1 runs in total, and the market line is 9.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, Chicago Cubs won 4 and Pittsburgh Pirates won 1. The last one ended Chicago Cubs 12, Pittsburgh Pirates 2.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Cubs +1.5 has a 68% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Cubs +3.5 wins if Cubs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.