Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Patriots to win

64% chancePrice -2051 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Steelers to win

36% chancePrice +1701 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives New England Patriots 64% and Pittsburgh Steelers 36%. The bookmakers agree and make New England Patriots the favourite at -205.

2. 2
   Recent form

   New England Patriots won 1 of their last 5 and Pittsburgh Steelers won 2 of their last 5. Pittsburgh Steelers come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   New England Patriots won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Pittsburgh Steelers won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   New England Patriots score 24.6 points a game and let in 17.9. Pittsburgh Steelers score 21.2 and let in 21.9. Their recent games average 42.5 and 43.1 points in total, and the market line is 43.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 1 meeting, New England Patriots won 0 and Pittsburgh Steelers won 1. The last one ended New England Patriots 14, Pittsburgh Steelers 21.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Patriots to win has a 64% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Patriots +3.5 wins if Patriots win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.