Predictions › United Kingdom › Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley

League OneSat 12 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley prediction

Home Park

Plymouth ArgyleHome

1.86 : 1.24

expected goals

BarnsleyAway

51%Plymouth

24%Draw

25%Barnsley

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction: Plymouth Argyle to win
Chance: 51%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Plymouth Argyle 1.9, Barnsley 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 2/92 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5

36% chanceFair price 9/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Plymouth Argyle 51%, the draw 24% and Barnsley 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Plymouth Argyle the favourite at 4/6.
2
Recent form
Plymouth Argyle took 7 points from their last 5 games and Barnsley took 10 from 5. Barnsley come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Plymouth Argyle won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Barnsley won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Plymouth Argyle score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. Barnsley score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Plymouth Argyle games and 10 of Barnsley games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Plymouth Argyle won 1 and Barnsley won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Barnsley 0, Plymouth Argyle 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley: Plymouth Argyle are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Plymouth Argyle host Barnsley in the League One on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 at Home Park. Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Plymouth Argyle form

Plymouth Argyle have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Barnsley form

Barnsley have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Plymouth Argyle won 1, Barnsley won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Barnsley 0, Plymouth Argyle 3.

Our call

We expect Plymouth Argyle to score about 1.9 goals and Barnsley about 1.2. That points to Plymouth Argyle to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5 at 9/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Plymouth	Barnsley
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	5
Draws	4	8
Losses	5	7
Goals scored	37	23
Goals conceded	26	29
Scored per game	1.9	1.1
Conceded per game	1.3	1.4
Home record	6W 1D 3L	2W 4D 5L
Away record	5W 3D 2L	3W 4D 2L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Plymouth Argyle to win	51%	10/11	4/6	-15.7%
A Draw	24%	10/3	10/3	+2.8%
Barnsley to win	25%	3/1	7/2	+14.3%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	7/5	6/5	-9.8%
Under 3.5 goals	59%	4/6	8/13	-4.1%
Plymouth Argyle -0.5	56%	4/5	8/13	-10.3%
Barnsley +0.5	44%	5/4	6/5	-2.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	2/9
Over 2.5 goals	60%	4/6
Over 3.5 goals	38%	13/8
Both teams to score	61%	4/6
Plymouth Argyle or Draw	75%	1/3
Barnsley or Draw	49%	21/20
Plymouth Argyle to win and Over 2.5	36%	9/5
Barnsley to win and Over 2.5	16%	5/1
Plymouth Argyle clean sheet	29%	5/2
Barnsley clean sheet	16%	11/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%

2-19.7%

2-07.8%

1-07.7%

1-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley?

Our prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley is Plymouth Argyle to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Plymouth Argyle to score 1.9 goals and Barnsley 1.2.

Will both teams score in Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Plymouth Argyle last 20 games and 13 of Barnsley last 20.

How are Plymouth Argyle playing?

How are Barnsley playing?

What happened when Plymouth Argyle and Barnsley last met?

It ended Barnsley 0, Plymouth Argyle 3. In the last 1 meeting Plymouth Argyle won 1 and Barnsley won 0.

What is the best bet for Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.