Portland Fire vs Golden State Valkyries prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Valkyries to win

85% chancePrice -8001 unit

★

Eagle value pick

Fire +12.5

55% chancePrice -110+4.4% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Golden State Valkyries 85% and Portland Fire 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Golden State Valkyries the favourite at -800.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Golden State Valkyries won 4 of their last 5 and Portland Fire won 1 of their last 5. Golden State Valkyries come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Golden State Valkyries won 5 of their last 7 games at home. Portland Fire won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Golden State Valkyries score 82.5 points a game and let in 73.0. Portland Fire score 88.5 and let in 89.8. Their recent games average 155.5 and 178.3 points in total, and the market line is 161.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 2 meetings, Golden State Valkyries won 2 and Portland Fire won 0. The last one ended Portland Fire 69, Golden State Valkyries 86.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Fire +12.5 is priced at -110. Our fair price is -121, so the bookmaker pays about 4.4% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Valkyries +3.5 wins if Valkyries win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.