Predictions › Eredivisie › PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam

EredivisieSun 13 Sept, 18:00 UTC

PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction

Philips Stadion

PSV EindhovenHome

3.48 : 1.25

expected goals

Sparta RotterdamAway

79%PSV

12%Draw

9%Sparta

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: PSV Eindhoven to win
Chance: 79%
Most likely score: 3-1
Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 3.5, Sparta Rotterdam 1.3
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 69%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 3-1

8% chanceFair price 12.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives PSV Eindhoven 79%, the draw 12% and Sparta Rotterdam 9%. The bookmakers agree and make PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 1.17.
2
Recent form
PSV Eindhoven took 13 points from their last 5 games and Sparta Rotterdam took 5 from 5. PSV Eindhoven come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
PSV Eindhoven won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
PSV Eindhoven score 3.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Sparta Rotterdam score 1.3 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 18 of PSV Eindhoven games and 12 of Sparta Rotterdam games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, PSV Eindhoven won 1 and Sparta Rotterdam won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sparta Rotterdam 0, PSV Eindhoven 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam: PSV Eindhoven are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

PSV Eindhoven host Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie on Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 at Philips Stadion. Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.18.

PSV Eindhoven form

PSV Eindhoven have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 59 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Sparta Rotterdam form

Sparta Rotterdam have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. PSV Eindhoven won 1, Sparta Rotterdam won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sparta Rotterdam 0, PSV Eindhoven 2.

Our call

We expect PSV Eindhoven to score about 3.5 goals and Sparta Rotterdam about 1.3. That points to PSV Eindhoven to win, with 3-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 3-1 at 12.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	PSV	Sparta
Games played	20	20
Wins	14	4
Draws	3	7
Losses	3	9
Goals scored	59	25
Goals conceded	27	37
Scored per game	3.0	1.3
Conceded per game	1.4	1.9
Home record	7W 2D 1L	2W 5D 3L
Away record	7W 1D 2L	2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Both teams scored	90%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	90%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
PSV Eindhoven to win	79%	1.27	1.17	-8.2%
A Draw	12%	8.30	8.00	-3.6%
Sparta Rotterdam to win	9%	10.80	11.00	+1.9%
Over 4.5 goals	46%	2.15	2.10	-2.4%
Under 4.5 goals	54%	1.87	1.69	-9.6%
PSV Eindhoven -2.5	45%	2.22	2.00	-9.9%
Sparta Rotterdam +2.5	55%	1.82	1.69	-7.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	95%	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	85%	1.18
Over 3.5 goals	69%	1.44
Both teams to score	69%	1.44
PSV Eindhoven or Draw	91%	1.10
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw	21%	4.69
PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.5	70%	1.42
Sparta Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5	8%	13.00
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet	29%	3.48
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	3%	32.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

3-17.8%

4-16.7%

2-16.7%

3-06.2%

4-05.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?

3-1 is the most likely score, followed by 4-1 and 2-1. We expect PSV Eindhoven to score 3.5 goals and Sparta Rotterdam 1.3.

Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Both teams to score has a 69% chance. Both sides scored in 18 of PSV Eindhoven last 20 games and 12 of Sparta Rotterdam last 20.

How are PSV Eindhoven playing?

How are Sparta Rotterdam playing?

What happened when PSV Eindhoven and Sparta Rotterdam last met?

It ended Sparta Rotterdam 0, PSV Eindhoven 2. In the last 1 meeting PSV Eindhoven won 1 and Sparta Rotterdam won 0.

What is the best bet for PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.