Predictions › Liga MX › Puebla vs Toluca

Liga MXWed 16 Sept, 01:00 UTC

Puebla vs Toluca prediction

Estadio Cuauhtémoc

PueblaHome

1.10 : 1.82

expected goals

TolucaAway

22%Puebla

24%Draw

54%Toluca

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Puebla vs Toluca is Toluca to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction: Toluca to win
Chance: 54%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Puebla 1.1, Toluca 1.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.262 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Toluca to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price 2.821 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Puebla 22%, the draw 24% and Toluca 54%. The bookmakers agree and make Toluca the favourite at 1.67.
2
Recent form
Puebla took 7 points from their last 5 games and Toluca took 10 from 5. Toluca come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Puebla won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Toluca won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Puebla score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.6. Toluca score 1.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Puebla games and 10 of Toluca games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Puebla won 0 and Toluca won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Puebla 0, Toluca 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Puebla vs Toluca: Toluca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Puebla host Toluca in the Liga MX on Wed 16 Sept, 01:00 at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. Our prediction for Puebla vs Toluca is Toluca to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Puebla form

Puebla have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Toluca form

Toluca have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Puebla won 0, Toluca won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Puebla 0, Toluca 0.

Our call

We expect Puebla to score about 1.1 goals and Toluca about 1.8. That points to Toluca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Toluca to win and Over 2.5 at 2.82.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Puebla	Toluca
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	10
Draws	5	4
Losses	10	6
Goals scored	20	35
Goals conceded	32	21
Scored per game	1.0	1.8
Conceded per game	1.6	1.1
Home record	2W 4D 4L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	3W 1D 6L	4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	25%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Puebla to win	22%	4.52	4.50	-0.5%
A Draw	24%	4.12	4.20	+1.9%
Toluca to win	54%	1.86	1.67	-10.6%
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.70	1.56	-8.4%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.43	2.35	-3.3%
Puebla +0.5	44%	2.27	2.15	-5.3%
Toluca -0.5	56%	1.79	1.63	-9.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.79
Over 3.5 goals	33%	2.99
Both teams to score	56%	1.77
Puebla or Draw	46%	2.16
Toluca or Draw	78%	1.28
Puebla to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.38
Toluca to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.82
Puebla clean sheet	16%	6.17
Toluca clean sheet	33%	2.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%

1-29.8%

0-19.2%

0-29.0%

0-06.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Puebla vs Toluca?

Our prediction for Puebla vs Toluca is Toluca to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Puebla vs Toluca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Puebla to score 1.1 goals and Toluca 1.8.

Will both teams score in Puebla vs Toluca?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Puebla last 20 games and 11 of Toluca last 20.

How are Puebla playing?

How are Toluca playing?

What happened when Puebla and Toluca last met?

It ended Puebla 0, Toluca 0. In the last 2 meetings Puebla won 0 and Toluca won 1.

What is the best bet for Puebla vs Toluca?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.