Reading vs Notts County prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 2/112 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Reading to win and Over 2.5

40% chanceFair price 6/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Reading 54%, the draw 23% and Notts County 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Reading took 10 points from their last 5 games and Notts County took 7 from 5. Reading come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Reading won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Notts County won 0 of their last 4 on the road.

4. 4
   Goals

   Reading score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. Notts County score 1.3 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Reading games and 2 of Notts County games in that run.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.