Predictions › LaLiga › Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
Sat 12 Sept, 22:00 Kenya time, Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3.25 - 0.83
expected goals
Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid 83%Draw 11%Rayo 6%
Our three picks
✓
Safest pick
Real Madrid to win
⚡
Bold pick
Real Madrid to win and both score
No value bet here: at the current prices the bookmaker is not giving more than our model thinks is fair. We would rather say so than force one.
Price check against DraftKings
Our chance mixes the model with the market. Value is how much the price pays above our fair price.
| Bet | Our chance | Fair | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win | 83% | 1.20 | 1.11 | -7.5% |
| A Draw | 11% | 9.13 | 10.00 | +9.5% |
| Rayo Vallecano to win | 6% | 17.34 | 20.00 | +15.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | 1.69 | -1.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.40 | 2.15 | -10.3% |
| Real Madrid -2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | 1.83 | -15.2% |
| Rayo Vallecano +2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | 1.87 | +0.5% |
Goals and other markets
| Market | Chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 1.83 |
| Real Madrid or Draw | 94% | 1.06 |
| Rayo Vallecano or Draw | 17% | 5.98 |
| Real Madrid to win and Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Rayo Vallecano to win and Over 2.5 | 4% | 24.62 |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 44% | 2.29 |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 4% | 25.90 |
Most likely scores
3-09.7%
2-08.9%
3-18.0%
4-07.9%
2-17.4%
Questions people ask
Who will win Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model gives Real Madrid a 83% chance, the draw 11% and Rayo Vallecano 6%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
We expect about 4.1 goals (Real Madrid 3.25, Rayo Vallecano 0.83). Over 2.5 goals has a 77% chance.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Both teams to score has a 54% chance according to our model.
What is the most likely score?
3-0, with a 9.7% chance, followed by 2-0 and 3-1.