Predictions › Europa League › Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth

Europa LeagueThu 17 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth prediction

Reale Arena

Real SociedadHome

1.50 : 1.52

expected goals

AFC BournemouthAway

37%Real Sociedad

26%Draw

38%Bournemouth

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: AFC Bournemouth to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.5, AFC Bournemouth 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Real Sociedad to win

37% chancePrice 2.75+1.2% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Real Sociedad 37%, the draw 26% and AFC Bournemouth 38%. The bookmakers agree and make AFC Bournemouth the favourite at 2.45.
2
Recent form
Real Sociedad took 7 points from their last 5 games and AFC Bournemouth took 6 from 5. Real Sociedad come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 9 games at home. AFC Bournemouth won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Real Sociedad score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.9. AFC Bournemouth score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Real Sociedad games and 10 of AFC Bournemouth games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Real Sociedad host AFC Bournemouth in the Europa League on Thu 17 Sept, 19:00 at Reale Arena. Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Real Sociedad form

Real Sociedad have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

AFC Bournemouth form

AFC Bournemouth have 8 wins, 11 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Real Sociedad to score about 1.5 goals and AFC Bournemouth about 1.5. That points to AFC Bournemouth to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Real Sociedad to win at 2.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Real Sociedad	Bournemouth
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	8
Draws	7	11
Losses	8	1
Goals scored	32	31
Goals conceded	38	18
Scored per game	1.6	1.6
Conceded per game	1.9	0.9
Home record	3W 4D 2L	3W 7D 0L
Away record	2W 3D 6L	5W 4D 1L
Clean sheets	15%	35%
Both teams scored	70%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Real Sociedad to win	37%	2.72	2.75	+1.2%
A Draw	26%	3.91	3.45	-11.7%
AFC Bournemouth to win	38%	2.66	2.45	-7.9%
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.80	1.71	-4.9%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.25	2.05	-8.8%
Real Sociedad +0.5	61%	1.64	1.53	-7.2%
AFC Bournemouth -0.5	39%	2.55	2.30	-9.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.73
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.81
Both teams to score	61%	1.63
Real Sociedad or Draw	62%	1.60
AFC Bournemouth or Draw	63%	1.58
Real Sociedad to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.06
AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.97
Real Sociedad clean sheet	22%	4.55
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet	22%	4.47

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

1-28.5%

2-18.4%

0-16.8%

1-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth?

Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Real Sociedad to score 1.5 goals and AFC Bournemouth 1.5.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Real Sociedad last 20 games and 13 of AFC Bournemouth last 20.

How are Real Sociedad playing?

How are AFC Bournemouth playing?

What is the best bet for Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.