Predictions › Primeira Liga › Rio Ave vs Estrela

Primeira LigaMon 14 Sept, 17:45 UTC

Rio Ave vs Estrela prediction

Estádio do Rio Ave

Rio AveHome

1.22 : 1.45

expected goals

EstrelaAway

31%Rio Ave

27%Draw

42%Estrela

Eagle value pickEstrela to win

2.55

Quick answer

Our prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela is Estrela to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Estrela to win at 2.55.

Prediction: Estrela to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Rio Ave 1.2, Estrela 1.4
Best bet: Estrela to win at 2.55
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

★

Eagle value pick

Estrela to win

42% chancePrice 2.55+6.0% value2 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.691 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Rio Ave 31%, the draw 27% and Estrela 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Estrela the favourite at 2.55.
2
Recent form
Rio Ave took 3 points from their last 5 games and Estrela took 9 from 5. Estrela come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Rio Ave won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Estrela won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Rio Ave score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Estrela score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Rio Ave games and 12 of Estrela games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Rio Ave won 2 and Estrela won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Rio Ave 2, Estrela 1.
6
Where the value is
Estrela to win is priced at 2.55. Our fair price is 2.40, so the bookmaker pays about 6.0% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Rio Ave vs Estrela: Estrela shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Rio Ave host Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Mon 14 Sept, 17:45 at Estádio do Rio Ave. Our prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela is Estrela to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Estrela to win at 2.55.

Rio Ave form

Rio Ave have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Estrela form

Estrela have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Rio Ave won 2, Estrela won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Rio Ave 2, Estrela 1.

Our call

We expect Rio Ave to score about 1.2 goals and Estrela about 1.4. That points to Estrela to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our value bet is Estrela to win at 2.55. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.69.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Rio Ave	Estrela
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	4
Draws	4	8
Losses	11	8
Goals scored	15	26
Goals conceded	33	29
Scored per game	0.8	1.3
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	1W 3D 6L	3W 4D 3L
Away record	4W 1D 5L	1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Both teams scored	35%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Rio Ave to win	31%	3.21	2.75	-14.4%
A Draw	27%	3.67	3.15	-14.1%
Estrela to win	42%	2.41	2.55	+6.0%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.12	2.00	-5.5%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.71	-9.6%
Rio Ave +0.5	61%	1.65	1.49	-9.6%
Estrela -0.5	39%	2.55	2.40	-5.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.59
Both teams to score	55%	1.83
Rio Ave or Draw	58%	1.71
Estrela or Draw	69%	1.45
Rio Ave to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.49
Estrela to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.00
Rio Ave clean sheet	24%	4.25
Estrela clean sheet	30%	3.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

0-19.3%

1-28.9%

1-07.7%

0-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Rio Ave vs Estrela?

Our prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela is Estrela to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Estrela to win at 2.55.

What is the score prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Rio Ave to score 1.2 goals and Estrela 1.4.

Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Estrela?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Rio Ave last 20 games and 12 of Estrela last 20.

How are Rio Ave playing?

How are Estrela playing?

What happened when Rio Ave and Estrela last met?

It ended Rio Ave 2, Estrela 1. In the last 2 meetings Rio Ave won 2 and Estrela won 0.

What is the best bet for Rio Ave vs Estrela?

Estrela to win at 2.55, with a 42% chance. That price pays about 6.0% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.