Sacramento State Hornets vs Fresno State Bulldogs prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Sacramento St +28.5

75% chanceFair price -3002 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Fresno State Bulldogs 87% and Sacramento State Hornets 13%. The bookmakers agree and make Fresno State Bulldogs the favourite at -952.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Fresno State Bulldogs won 3 of their last 5 and Sacramento State Hornets won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Fresno State Bulldogs won 4 of their last 6 games at home. Sacramento State Hornets won 3 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Fresno State Bulldogs score 22.7 points a game and let in 19.2. Sacramento State Hornets score 37.8 and let in 25.3. Their recent games average 41.9 and 63.1 points in total, and the market line is 45.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Sacramento St +28.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Fresno St +3.5 wins if Fresno St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.