Predictions › United States › San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union

MLSSun 13 Sept, 21:00 United States time

San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction

Snapdragon Stadium

San Diego FCHome

1.76 : 1.63

expected goals

Philadelphia UnionAway

41%San Diego

24%Draw

35%Philadelphia

Eagle safe pickSan Diego FC +0.5

-190

Quick answer

Our prediction for San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union is San Diego FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is San Diego FC +0.5 at -190.

Prediction: San Diego FC to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: San Diego FC 1.8, Philadelphia Union 1.6
Best bet: San Diego FC +0.5 at -190
Both teams to score: 67%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

San Diego FC +0.5

62% chancePrice -1901 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

San Diego FC to win

41% chancePrice +150+2.4% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives San Diego FC 41%, the draw 24% and Philadelphia Union 35%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Philadelphia Union the favourite at +145, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
San Diego FC took 6 points from their last 5 games and Philadelphia Union took 11 from 5. Philadelphia Union come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
San Diego FC won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Philadelphia Union won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
San Diego FC score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.7. Philadelphia Union score 1.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of San Diego FC games and 13 of Philadelphia Union games in that run.
5
The safest bet
San Diego FC +0.5 has a 62% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union: San Diego FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Diego FC host Philadelphia Union in the MLS on Sun 13 Sept, 21:00 at Snapdragon Stadium. Our prediction for San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union is San Diego FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is San Diego FC +0.5 at -190.

San Diego FC form

San Diego FC have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Philadelphia Union form

Philadelphia Union have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect San Diego FC to score about 1.8 goals and Philadelphia Union about 1.6. That points to San Diego FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is San Diego FC +0.5 at -190. Our bold bet is San Diego FC to win at +150.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	San Diego	Philadelphia
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	8
Draws	5	6
Losses	10	6
Goals scored	31	39
Goals conceded	34	32
Scored per game	1.6	1.9
Conceded per game	1.7	1.6
Home record	4W 3D 4L	5W 4D 1L
Away record	1W 2D 6L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
San Diego FC to win	41%	+144	+150	+2.4%
A Draw	24%	+321	+265	-13.2%
Philadelphia Union to win	35%	+184	+145	-13.6%
Over 3.5 goals	43%	+131	+120	-4.6%
Under 3.5 goals	57%	-131	-150	-5.6%
San Diego FC +0.5	62%	-162	-190	-5.6%
Philadelphia Union -0.5	38%	+162	+135	-10.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	-605
Over 2.5 goals	66%	-193
Over 3.5 goals	44%	+127
Both teams to score	67%	-205
San Diego FC or Draw	65%	-184
Philadelphia Union or Draw	59%	-144
San Diego FC to win and Over 2.5	30%	+229
Philadelphia Union to win and Over 2.5	26%	+286
San Diego FC clean sheet	20%	+409
Philadelphia Union clean sheet	17%	+484

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.2%

2-18.5%

1-27.9%

2-26.9%

1-05.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Our prediction for San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union is San Diego FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is San Diego FC +0.5 at -190.

What is the score prediction for San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect San Diego FC to score 1.8 goals and Philadelphia Union 1.6.

Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Both teams to score has a 67% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of San Diego FC last 20 games and 14 of Philadelphia Union last 20.

How are San Diego FC playing?

How are Philadelphia Union playing?

What is the best bet for San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?

San Diego FC +0.5 at -190, with a 62% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.