San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Giants +3.5

75% chanceFair price -3042 units

★

Eagle value pick

Over 7.5 runs

55% chancePrice -114+3.3% value1 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Giants to win

42% chancePrice +1341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives San Francisco Giants 42% and San Diego Padres 58%. The bookmakers agree and make San Diego Padres the favourite at -163.

2. 2
   Recent form

   San Francisco Giants won 4 of their last 5 and San Diego Padres won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   San Francisco Giants won 7 of their last 10 games at home. San Diego Padres won 2 of their last 8 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   San Francisco Giants score 5.2 runs a game and let in 5.0. San Diego Padres score 4.2 and let in 3.4. Their recent games average 10.2 and 7.5 runs in total, and the market line is 7.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, San Francisco Giants won 1 and San Diego Padres won 4. The last one ended San Diego Padres 5, San Francisco Giants 4.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Over 7.5 runs is priced at -114. Our fair price is -122, so the bookmaker pays about 3.3% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Giants +3.5 wins if Giants win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.