San Diego State Aztecs vs UCLA Bruins prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

UCLA to win

79% chancePrice -4691 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives UCLA Bruins 79% and San Diego State Aztecs 21%. The bookmakers agree and make UCLA Bruins the favourite at -469.

2. 2
   Recent form

   UCLA Bruins won 1 of their last 5 and San Diego State Aztecs won 3 of their last 5. San Diego State Aztecs come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   UCLA Bruins won 2 of their last 5 games at home. San Diego State Aztecs won 3 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   UCLA Bruins score 20.9 points a game and let in 32.0. San Diego State Aztecs score 28.4 and let in 15.3. Their recent games average 52.9 and 43.8 points in total, and the market line is 54.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   UCLA to win has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. UCLA +3.5 wins if UCLA win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.