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Predictions › United States › San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC
MLSSat 12 Sept, 22:30 United States time

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC prediction

PayPal Park

San Jose EarthquakesHome
1.50 : 1.52
expected goals
Houston Dynamo FCAway
37%San Jose
26%Draw
38%Houston
Eagle value pickHouston Dynamo FC to win
+175

Quick answer

Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC is Houston Dynamo FC to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Houston Dynamo FC to win at +175.

Prediction
Houston Dynamo FC to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
San Jose Earthquakes 1.5, Houston Dynamo FC 1.5
Best bet
Houston Dynamo FC to win at +175
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Houston Dynamo FC +0.5
60% chancePrice -1751 unit
★

Eagle value pick

Houston Dynamo FC to win
38% chancePrice +175+3.6% value1 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Houston Dynamo FC to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price +2961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives San Jose Earthquakes 37%, the draw 26% and Houston Dynamo FC 38%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make San Jose Earthquakes the favourite at +130, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    San Jose Earthquakes took 5 points from their last 5 games and Houston Dynamo FC took 8 from 5. Houston Dynamo FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    San Jose Earthquakes won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Houston Dynamo FC won 5 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    San Jose Earthquakes score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.8. Houston Dynamo FC score 1.2 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of San Jose Earthquakes games and 6 of Houston Dynamo FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, San Jose Earthquakes won 0 and Houston Dynamo FC won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Houston Dynamo FC 0, San Jose Earthquakes 0.

  6. 6
    Where the value is

    Houston Dynamo FC to win is priced at +175. Our fair price is +165, so the bookmaker pays about 3.6% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC: Houston Dynamo FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Jose Earthquakes host Houston Dynamo FC in the MLS on Sat 12 Sept, 22:30 at PayPal Park. Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC is Houston Dynamo FC to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Houston Dynamo FC to win at +175.

San Jose Earthquakes form

San Jose Earthquakes have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Houston Dynamo FC form

Houston Dynamo FC have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. San Jose Earthquakes won 0, Houston Dynamo FC won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Houston Dynamo FC 0, San Jose Earthquakes 0.

Our call

We expect San Jose Earthquakes to score about 1.5 goals and Houston Dynamo FC about 1.5. That points to Houston Dynamo FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Houston Dynamo FC +0.5 at -175. Our value bet is Houston Dynamo FC to win at +175. Our bold bet is Houston Dynamo FC to win and Over 2.5 at +296.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

San JoseHouston
Games played2020
Wins811
Draws54
Losses75
Goals scored3724
Goals conceded3518
Scored per game1.91.2
Conceded per game1.80.9
Home record2W 2D 4L6W 2D 1L
Away record6W 3D 3L5W 2D 4L
Clean sheets15%55%
Both teams scored75%30%
Over 2.5 goals65%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
San Jose Earthquakes to win37%+172+130-15.4%
A Draw26%+291+250-10.5%
Houston Dynamo FC to win38%+165+175+3.6%
Over 2.5 goals57%-135-155-5.5%
Under 2.5 goals43%+135+120-6.4%
San Jose Earthquakes -0.540%+151+125-10.4%
Houston Dynamo FC +0.560%-151-175-5.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%-425
Over 2.5 goals58%-138
Over 3.5 goals36%+181
Both teams to score61%-158
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw62%-165
Houston Dynamo FC or Draw63%-172
San Jose Earthquakes to win and Over 2.525%+307
Houston Dynamo FC to win and Over 2.525%+296
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet22%+356
Houston Dynamo FC clean sheet22%+347

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
1-28.5%
2-18.3%
0-16.8%
1-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?

Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC is Houston Dynamo FC to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Houston Dynamo FC to win at +175.

What is the score prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect San Jose Earthquakes to score 1.5 goals and Houston Dynamo FC 1.5.

Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of San Jose Earthquakes last 20 games and 6 of Houston Dynamo FC last 20.

How are San Jose Earthquakes playing?

San Jose Earthquakes have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Houston Dynamo FC playing?

Houston Dynamo FC have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo FC last met?

It ended Houston Dynamo FC 0, San Jose Earthquakes 0. In the last 1 meeting San Jose Earthquakes won 0 and Houston Dynamo FC won 0.

What is the best bet for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC?

Houston Dynamo FC to win at +175, with a 38% chance. That price pays about 3.6% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.