Predictions › Argentina Liga Profesional › San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors

Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 20 Sept, 17:45 UTC

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors prediction

Estadio Pedro Bidegain

San LorenzoHome

1.10 : 1.33

expected goals

Boca JuniorsAway

30%San Lorenzo

29%Draw

41%Boca

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors is Boca Juniors to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Boca Juniors to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.1, Boca Juniors 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.331 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives San Lorenzo 30%, the draw 29% and Boca Juniors 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
San Lorenzo took 7 points from their last 5 games and Boca Juniors took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
San Lorenzo won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Boca Juniors won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
San Lorenzo score 0.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Boca Juniors score 1.4 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of San Lorenzo games and 7 of Boca Juniors games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, San Lorenzo won 0 and Boca Juniors won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Boca Juniors 1, San Lorenzo 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors: Boca Juniors shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

San Lorenzo host Boca Juniors in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 20 Sept, 17:45 at Estadio Pedro Bidegain. Our prediction for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors is Boca Juniors to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

San Lorenzo form

San Lorenzo have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Boca Juniors form

Boca Juniors have 8 wins, 10 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. San Lorenzo won 0, Boca Juniors won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Boca Juniors 1, San Lorenzo 1.

Our call

We expect San Lorenzo to score about 1.1 goals and Boca Juniors about 1.3. That points to Boca Juniors to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.33.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	San Lorenzo	Boca
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	8
Draws	8	10
Losses	6	2
Goals scored	15	28
Goals conceded	17	18
Scored per game	0.8	1.4
Conceded per game	0.8	0.9
Home record	5W 2D 3L	3W 5D 1L
Away record	1W 6D 3L	5W 5D 1L
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	15%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.42
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.28
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.38
Both teams to score	50%	2.00
San Lorenzo or Draw	59%	1.70
Boca Juniors or Draw	70%	1.43
San Lorenzo to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.28
Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.46
San Lorenzo clean sheet	26%	3.78
Boca Juniors clean sheet	33%	3.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

0-110.9%

0-09.5%

1-08.9%

1-28.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?

Our prediction for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors is Boca Juniors to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect San Lorenzo to score 1.1 goals and Boca Juniors 1.3.

Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of San Lorenzo last 20 games and 11 of Boca Juniors last 20.

How are San Lorenzo playing?

How are Boca Juniors playing?

What happened when San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors last met?

It ended Boca Juniors 1, San Lorenzo 1. In the last 1 meeting San Lorenzo won 0 and Boca Juniors won 0.

What is the best bet for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.