Predictions › Brasileirao › Santos vs Cruzeiro

BrasileiraoSun 13 Sept, 00:00 UTC

Santos vs Cruzeiro prediction

Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira)

SantosHome

1.30 : 1.30

expected goals

CruzeiroAway

36%Santos

28%Draw

36%Cruzeiro

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.35

Quick answer

Our prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro is Cruzeiro to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.35.

Prediction: Cruzeiro to win
Chance: 36%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Santos 1.3, Cruzeiro 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.35
Both teams to score: 54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

74% chanceFair price 1.351 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Santos to win

36% chancePrice 2.85+2.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Santos 36%, the draw 28% and Cruzeiro 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Cruzeiro the favourite at 2.40.
2
Recent form
Santos took 10 points from their last 5 games and Cruzeiro took 12 from 5. Cruzeiro come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Santos won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Cruzeiro won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Santos score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Cruzeiro score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Santos games and 13 of Cruzeiro games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Santos won 1 and Cruzeiro won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Cruzeiro 0, Santos 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Santos vs Cruzeiro: Cruzeiro shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Santos host Cruzeiro in the Brasileirao on Sun 13 Sept, 00:00 at Estádio Vila Belmiro (Urbano Caldeira). Our prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro is Cruzeiro to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.35.

Santos form

Santos have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Cruzeiro form

Cruzeiro have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Santos won 1, Cruzeiro won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Cruzeiro 0, Santos 0.

Our call

We expect Santos to score about 1.3 goals and Cruzeiro about 1.3. That points to Cruzeiro to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.35. Our bold bet is Santos to win at 2.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Santos	Cruzeiro
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	12
Draws	6	3
Losses	7	5
Goals scored	29	31
Goals conceded	28	23
Scored per game	1.4	1.6
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	4W 3D 4L	7W 2D 2L
Away record	3W 3D 3L	5W 1D 3L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Santos to win	36%	2.78	2.85	+2.6%
A Draw	28%	3.58	3.30	-7.9%
Cruzeiro to win	36%	2.77	2.40	-13.4%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.91	-8.1%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.77	-8.2%
Santos +0.5	61%	1.65	1.54	-6.4%
Cruzeiro -0.5	39%	2.55	2.25	-11.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.08
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.79
Both teams to score	54%	1.86
Santos or Draw	64%	1.56
Cruzeiro or Draw	64%	1.56
Santos to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.80
Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.79
Santos clean sheet	27%	3.67
Cruzeiro clean sheet	27%	3.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

0-18.9%

1-08.9%

0-08.2%

1-28.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Santos vs Cruzeiro?

Our prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro is Cruzeiro to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.35.

What is the score prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Santos to score 1.3 goals and Cruzeiro 1.3.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Cruzeiro?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Santos last 20 games and 14 of Cruzeiro last 20.

How are Santos playing?

How are Cruzeiro playing?

What happened when Santos and Cruzeiro last met?

It ended Cruzeiro 0, Santos 0. In the last 2 meetings Santos won 1 and Cruzeiro won 0.

What is the best bet for Santos vs Cruzeiro?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.35, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.