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Predictions › J1 League › Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka
J1 LeagueSat 12 Sept, 09:30 UTC

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction

IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Shimizu S-PulseHome
1.11 : 1.18
expected goals
Avispa FukuokaAway
33%Shimizu
30%Draw
37%A Fukuoka
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka is Avispa Fukuoka to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Avispa Fukuoka to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Shimizu S-Pulse 1.1, Avispa Fukuoka 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.121 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Shimizu S-Pulse 33%, the draw 30% and Avispa Fukuoka 37%. The bookmakers agree and make Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 2.50.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Shimizu S-Pulse took 1 point from their last 5 games and Avispa Fukuoka took 4 from 5. Avispa Fukuoka come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Shimizu S-Pulse won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Avispa Fukuoka won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Shimizu S-Pulse score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Avispa Fukuoka score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Shimizu S-Pulse games and 10 of Avispa Fukuoka games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Shimizu S-Pulse won 0 and Avispa Fukuoka won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Shimizu S-Pulse 1, Avispa Fukuoka 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka: Avispa Fukuoka shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Shimizu S-Pulse host Avispa Fukuoka in the J1 League on Sat 12 Sept, 09:30 at IAI Stadium Nihondaira. Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka is Avispa Fukuoka to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Shimizu S-Pulse form

Shimizu S-Pulse have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Avispa Fukuoka form

Avispa Fukuoka have 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Shimizu S-Pulse won 0, Avispa Fukuoka won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Shimizu S-Pulse 1, Avispa Fukuoka 1.

Our call

We expect Shimizu S-Pulse to score about 1.1 goals and Avispa Fukuoka about 1.2. That points to Avispa Fukuoka to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.12.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ShimizuA Fukuoka
Games played2020
Wins45
Draws69
Losses106
Goals scored1827
Goals conceded2727
Scored per game0.91.4
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record1W 4D 5L2W 6D 3L
Away record3W 2D 5L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets10%15%
Both teams scored55%70%
Over 2.5 goals35%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Shimizu S-Pulse to win33%3.012.85-5.2%
A Draw30%3.343.25-2.7%
Avispa Fukuoka to win37%2.722.50-8.0%
Over 2.5 goals43%2.342.15-8.3%
Under 2.5 goals57%1.741.67-4.4%
Shimizu S-Pulse +0.561%1.631.53-6.3%
Avispa Fukuoka -0.539%2.592.35-9.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.48
Over 2.5 goals40%2.48
Over 3.5 goals20%4.99
Both teams to score47%2.11
Shimizu S-Pulse or Draw63%1.58
Avispa Fukuoka or Draw67%1.50
Shimizu S-Pulse to win and Over 2.517%6.01
Avispa Fukuoka to win and Over 2.519%5.37
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet31%3.27
Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet33%3.04

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%
0-111.1%
0-010.8%
1-010.4%
1-27.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Our prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka is Avispa Fukuoka to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Shimizu S-Pulse to score 1.1 goals and Avispa Fukuoka 1.2.

Will both teams score in Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Shimizu S-Pulse last 20 games and 14 of Avispa Fukuoka last 20.

How are Shimizu S-Pulse playing?

Shimizu S-Pulse have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Avispa Fukuoka playing?

Avispa Fukuoka have 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Shimizu S-Pulse and Avispa Fukuoka last met?

It ended Shimizu S-Pulse 1, Avispa Fukuoka 1. In the last 2 meetings Shimizu S-Pulse won 0 and Avispa Fukuoka won 0.

What is the best bet for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.