SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Under 68.5 points

75% chanceFair price -3002 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Louisville Cardinals 52% and SMU Mustangs 48%. The bookmakers agree and make Louisville Cardinals the favourite at -115.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Louisville Cardinals won 2 of their last 5 and SMU Mustangs won 4 of their last 5. SMU Mustangs come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Louisville Cardinals won 4 of their last 7 games at home. SMU Mustangs won 4 of their last 7 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Louisville Cardinals score 29.0 points a game and let in 23.8. SMU Mustangs score 29.9 and let in 19.2. Their recent games average 52.8 and 49.1 points in total, and the market line is 58.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 1 meeting, Louisville Cardinals won 0 and SMU Mustangs won 1. The last one ended SMU Mustangs 38, Louisville Cardinals 6.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Under 68.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Louisville +3.5 wins if Louisville win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.